A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
